Over the past 20 years, the PC CPU market has been dominated by the X86 architecture, with Intel holding more than half of the market share for an extended period. However, in recent years, Intel's dominant position in the PC processor market has been increasingly challenged, leading to a weakening of its leading advantage.

Currently, only two companies design CPUs based on the X86 architecture: Intel and AMD. Before the 80386, there were more than a dozen manufacturers producing X86 CPUs. However, with Intel's suppression, the expiration of licenses, and continuous performance upgrades, other manufacturers have gradually disappeared from the annals of history. Only AMD survived through its independently developed AMD64 and cross-licensed compatibility with Intel for the AMD X86-64, ushering in the 64-bit era of X86.

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The first to challenge Intel was AMD, also part of the X86 camp. AMD's chip performance has been significantly improved with the introduction of the Zen architecture in 2016, coupled with the support of TSMC's advanced process technology. AMD's PC processor performance has quickly caught up with and even surpassed Intel, driving AMD's market share in the PC processor market to continuously rise in recent years.

It can be seen that in the X86 processor market, Intel still holds a dominant advantage, but in recent years, AMD's pursuit has been too fierce, showing a trend of competing neck and neck with Intel.

PC Market Chill Sets In

CIC Consulting points out that the current downturn in the downstream market limits the shipments and performance of upstream manufacturers. CPUs, graphics cards, and other PC hardware are all subject to demand constraints from the downstream market. The sluggish replacement demand has led to inventory backlog issues for upstream manufacturers, and other chip manufacturers such as Intel and Nvidia, who are in the same upstream PC race as AMD, have been impacted to varying degrees.

On the other hand, the gradual extension of the replacement cycle for PC-related components has further tightened the scale of shipments in the upstream market. Supply chain adjustments have led to a reduction in processor shipments, and PC upstream manufacturers are bearing higher inventory costs.

In the short term, the decline in PC demand is difficult to alleviate. A Gartner report shows that in the third quarter of 2022, global PC shipments reached 68 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. This is the largest decline recorded by Gartner since it began tracking the PC market in the mid-1990s and marks the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline in the PC market.The sluggish PC market has quickly reflected on the supply chain side. As the two giants of the PC market's X86 processor, Intel and AMD, have undoubtedly both felt the chill of transmission.

On November 2, AMD disclosed its third-quarter report for 2022. Despite the growth of nearly 30% in revenue driven by other businesses, the company's PC processor business department's income plummeted by 40%, dragging the entire company's net profit to plummet by 93% year-on-year. The main reasons are the weak PC market and the reduction of inventory in the entire PC supply chain, leading to a decrease in processor shipments.

The downturn in the PC market has also affected AMD's "old rival" Intel. In the third quarter of this year, Intel's revenue fell by 20% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 85%.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger frankly stated that in the face of unpredictable macroeconomic and difficult market expectations, there is almost no good news in the short term. To cope with the market downturn, Intel has introduced a cost reduction plan, including layoffs and production cuts, and is expected to cut costs by $3 billion next year, with a maximum cost reduction of up to $10 billion over the next three years.

The Canalys report pointed out that unfavorable macroeconomic and industry factors have weakened the momentum of the personal computer market and may continue until 2023.

Facing the downturn of the main market, Intel and AMD have suffered a "shock wave" on the surface, but perhaps other hidden concerns are more difficult to deal with than the downturn of the PC market.

Because the competition between AMD and Intel still belongs to the X86 camp. The exploration of the Arm and RISC-V architecture in the field of PC processors may be the real challenge facing X86.

The Arm camp launched an impact

More than twenty years ago, Microsoft's Windows operating system and Intel's X86 chip, "the two giants merged," swept the entire computer market until they met Apple Inc.Apple's Emergence as a Dark Horse

The once impregnable Wintel alliance has shown cracks with Apple's emergence as a dark horse. The advent of "macOS + X86" has made "Windows + X86" no longer the only choice. By 2020, the release of the M1 chip has also brought the Arm architecture into this battle, and X86 has welcomed a new competitor.

Apple's "Emergence as a Dark Horse"

In November 2020, with the debut of Apple's first self-developed processor based on the Arm architecture, the M1, a single stone has caused a thousand waves to surge.

The application of Arm architecture chips on the PC side has become a focus of attention in the chip industry, especially in the general-purpose CPU chip industry.

After the release of the M1 chip, various evaluations showed users the expected results: the M1 chip's scores are comparable to high-end X86 processors, and its performance is close to the 11th generation of Core i7, breaking the shackles of low power and low performance of the Arm architecture. The M-series processors still maintain low power consumption while their performance is close to that of X86 processors, with power consumption only about half of Intel's processors. As a result, Macs equipped with M-series processors can be designed to be thinner and lighter, with stronger endurance.

This is the first time that the Arm architecture processor has caught up with Intel in terms of performance, and Macs equipped with M-series processors are very popular in the market.

The emergence of the M1 chip not only means that Apple and Intel's 15-year "love run" has ended with a "breakup", but also shows everyone the great potential of the Arm architecture on the PC side.

At Apple's WWDC in 2022, the Apple M2 chip made its debut. According to reports, the M2 chip uses a new generation of 5nm process technology, with an 18% CPU performance increase compared to the previous M1 chip, and a 35% GPU performance increase.

Compared with the 10-core X86 notebook processor, the performance is 90% ahead at the same power consumption (15W), and the power consumption of M2 is a quarter of the other party at the same performance. Compared with the 12-core notebook processor, 25% of the power consumption can bring 87% of the performance.

It is estimated that the M2 chip will follow the old path of M1, and later there will be chips such as M2 Pro, M2 Max, M2 Ultra, etc., and then replace them in their own Mac series products to achieve a full upgrade.Due to the maturation of chiplet design and the smooth advancement of TSMC's advanced packaging technology, the market has heard rumors that Apple may launch an M2 Extreme processor integrating two M2 Max chips next year, equipped with a 48-core CPU and a 152-core GPU. Industry insiders have pointed out that Apple's M2 Pro/Max/Extreme series of processors are all mass-produced using TSMC's 3-nanometer process, and if the news about the M2 Extreme is true, Apple's PC processor performance will be able to catch up with Intel next year, becoming the market leader in Arm architecture processors.

According to leaks, Apple is developing a large-screen iMac model aimed at the professional market, which will be equipped with the M3 series of chips, possibly the M3 Pro or M3 Max. The M3 series chips expected to be equipped with these products are expected to be manufactured based on TSMC's 3nm technology, which will be a comprehensive upgrade in terms of performance, power consumption, and compatibility compared to the M1 and M2 chips using the 5nm process.

Since the birth of the M series chips, Apple has broken users' perception of the performance of Arm chips and even reconstructed all its business lines to fully support the launch of the M series chips.

How much impact does Apple have on Arm? Before the M1 Mac compatible with Arm was sold, Arm's market share in PC chips was only 2% in the third quarter of 2020. More than a year later, according to Mercury Research's data for the first quarter of 2022, the estimated share of Arm PC clients is 11.3%, almost doubling from 5.9% a year ago.

With Apple's Mac product line fully embracing Arm architecture chips, Arm chips, which once accounted for a very small part of the personal computer chip market, have seen a rapid increase in market share.

A single spark can start a prairie fire.

Qualcomm comes to "stir up trouble"

The success of Apple's M-series processors has inspired chip companies in the mobile chip market, especially Qualcomm.

In fact, in the field of notebook chips based on the Arm architecture, Qualcomm has more experience than Apple. Previously, Qualcomm launched the first and second generations of Snapdragon 8CX processors for PCs in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and has developed three generations to date. However, unfortunately, these processors have not made much of a splash.

Despite years of attempts, Qualcomm remains optimistic about Windows on Arm and is developing it with all its might.Recently, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon stated during an earnings call that he anticipates a turning point in the market for Windows PCs equipped with Snapdragon chips by 2024. This forward-looking perspective is based on Microsoft's ongoing optimization efforts to improve the user experience of Arm-based Windows PCs, along with an increasing willingness from more OEM manufacturers to adopt Snapdragon chips.

Of course, more importantly, following the acquisition of Nuvia, Qualcomm plans to emulate Apple's M-series chips by completely reworking the standard Arm architecture and developing a high-performance PC processor from scratch, even challenging Intel and AMD.

It is reported that this CPU is being developed based on the Nuvia Phoenix prototype, with the codename Hamoa, featuring an 8-core large core + 4-core small core heterogeneous structure. The design of memory and cache is similar to Apple's M1, and it also supports discrete graphics cards, with promising performance.

It is worth mentioning that Nuvia's Phoenix prototype product only demonstrated its capabilities in a low-key manner in August 2020, at which time it significantly outperformed the Snapdragon 865, Apple A12X, and Apple A13 in GeekBench 5 single-core tests, with power consumption of less than 4.5 watts.

Notably, Nuvia's main founder, Gerard Williams III, led the development of Apple's chips from A7 (Cyclone core) to A14 (Firestorm core), and was also involved in the definition of Cortex-A8/A15 at Arm in his early years.

Qualcomm has stated that the new generation of processors aims to set a performance benchmark for Windows PCs, not only to compete with Apple's M-series processors but also to achieve industry-leading levels in sustained performance and lower power consumption. At the same time, Qualcomm will vigorously develop the Adreno GPU, with the goal of providing desktop-level gaming capabilities for its future PC products.

What Qualcomm hopes to achieve with this processor is a "disruptive" effect similar to that of Apple's M-series chips on the PC market.

Industry-renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that before challenging Apple or X86 processors, Qualcomm needs to consider how to persuade PC brands to adopt this processor instead of the traditionally used X86 architecture processors.

In summary, Qualcomm's ambitious plan to revolutionize the PC market with its new Snapdragon-based processors is contingent on overcoming several challenges, including convincing PC manufacturers to adopt its technology and delivering a truly competitive product that can rival established players like Intel and AMD. The success of this endeavor will depend on the company's ability to innovate and deliver a superior user experience, as well as its strategic partnerships and marketing efforts.The power of the X86 architecture does not lie in its own capabilities, but in the wide variety of programs based on the X86 instruction set that have been built around it. However, as the computer industry has developed, in order to achieve higher performance, the number of instruction sets integrated into X86 has increased, placing an increasing burden on the hardware, which has in turn increased power consumption and design complexity.

In contrast to X86, Arm has greatly simplified the architecture, retaining only the necessary instructions, which allows the entire processor to be more streamlined, with the characteristics of small size and high performance.

Early attempts by industry manufacturers that failed made people believe that using Arm chips as a PC platform was an impractical idea, but it is clear that the situation has changed dramatically.

On the one hand, Apple's Arm-based processor technology has demonstrated excellent performance that is not inferior to Intel's X86 chips.

On the other hand, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and domestic manufacturers, who once stumbled on Windows on Arm, have also started to catch up.

Microsoft not only launched Windows 11 Arm, bringing 64-bit application emulation to Arm, but also in 2020, it was reported that it would develop its own Arm-based processor. In October last year, the Microsoft Surface division posted a recruitment for an SoC architect, which means that Microsoft may start developing its own PC chips for Surface devices.

Arm itself also released the brand new Armv9 instruction set in March 2021, with stronger computing power, no longer limited to the mobile market, but also focusing on new markets such as PCs, HPC high-performance computing, and deep learning.

In addition, Samsung, MediaTek, mainland's Phytium, Rockchip, and start-ups like ThisChip are also coveting this market.

In 2020, there were reports that Samsung was developing the Exynos 1000 processor, which may also be used for Windows PCs. According to a recent report by Sammobile, Samsung is developing the next-generation flagship processor Exynos 2300, with the chip model number S5E9935 and the code name "Quadra", it is unknown whether it will appear on other laptops in the future.

MediaTek directly stated its determination to enter the Windows on Arm platform at the Executive Summit in November last year, but since the plan is still in the early stages, it is unknown when it will be commercially available.On the mainland, Feiteng mainly focuses on developing Arm-based server and desktop CPUs; Rockchip released a new flagship Arm PC solution, the RK3588, at the end of last year; This Chip Technology is primarily committed to developing a compatible Arm general-purpose intelligent computing system, providing chip products and a one-stop solution for general computing. It is reported that their chip products have entered the engineering design phase, and the product definition and IP selection work have basically been completed. They plan to achieve the first product tape-out next year, after which the products will be launched.

In general, the strength of the Arm architecture in the PC chip field should not be underestimated in the future. With the support of veterans such as Apple and Qualcomm, the Arm architecture camp is gradually eroding the traditional territory of the X86 architecture.

At the same time, the Arm architecture is also growing in the server market. TrendForce Consulting's survey shows that it is estimated that the penetration rate of Arm architecture servers will reach 22% by 2025, and cloud data centers will be the first to adopt it.

It can be said that the X86 architecture has been under pressure.

RISC-V, a rising star

The Arm architecture is stirring up the competition in the PC CPU market, causing changes in the competitive landscape.

At the same time, the rise of open-source RISC-V has brought more uncertainty to the CPU market competition.

Looking at the current development, RISC-V CPUs have already been successful in the IoT market, which does not have high requirements for the ecosystem. Next, RISC-V will also enter the higher-performance mobile, PC, and server CPU markets, joining the competition between X86 and Arm.

In the PC field, Alibaba's PingTouGe and SaiFang Technology are important promoters of the RISC-V architecture. They have been involved in the RISC-V architecture early on, and after several years of development, they have developed high-performance PC processors based on the RISC-V architecture, raising the performance of RISC-V processors to a level sufficient to meet PC needs. At the same time, they have also adapted to Linux, Windows, and domestic Tongxin UOS systems, which can help PC manufacturers reduce the difficulty of launching PCs and promote the further acceleration of the development of domestic PC processors.

Recently, the world's first laptop based on the RISC-V processor, ROMA, was released. The CPU of the ROMA computer uses Alibaba PingTouGe's self-developed RISC-V CPU TH1520 (Yingying 1520), which uses four Xuan Tie C910 cores and has a clock speed of up to 2.5GHz.The TH1520 is designed based on Alibaba's Wujian 600 chip platform released in August 2022, capable of running desktop applications such as the Firefox browser and LibreOffice suite on Alibaba's OpenAnolis open-source operating system based on Linux, which was launched in 2020. The release of this computer has made us realize that RISC-V further demonstrates the potential and possibility of replacing X86 and Arm in the PC field.

Recently, the domestic RISC-V vendor, StarFive Technology, has launched a PC processor based on the RISC-V architecture and a single-board computer. StarFive Technology has always focused on the development of high-performance RISC-V chips. Since its establishment, it has successively launched the world's highest-performance RISC-V CPU Core IP - StarFive • Tianjiu, the world's first mass-produced high-performance RISC-V multimedia processor - StarFive • Jinghong 7110, and the world's highest-performance mass-produced RISC-V single-board computer StarFive • Xingguang 2. It has achieved a full-stack combination from RISC-V core, processor chip to software ecosystem, effectively tearing off the label of RISC-V as low-end and opening up the application of high-performance RISC-V processors.

The efforts of companies such as PingTouGe and StarFive Technology mean that RISC-V chips are accelerating into the PC processor market.

Overall, whether it is the large-scale application in the IoT market or the future potential to develop towards high-performance fields such as PCs and servers, the emerging RISC-V architecture is attracting many global participants to engage in it. At present, major domestic and foreign technology companies are vigorously deploying the RISC-V architecture, designing the required chip products through this open-source, streamlined architecture platform, or extending other ecosystems through RISC-V. Whether it is software or hardware, RISC-V's adaptability is gradually expanding.

In conclusion, from the rapid approach of AMD CPU performance to Intel, the rise of Apple's M-series processors, and the launch of RISC-V chips, we can see the performance leap that excellent CPU microarchitecture and fine optimization of microarchitecture can bring.

In fact, the academic community has long concluded that the instruction set has no direct impact on performance and power consumption. Longxin President Hu Weiwu also said earlier: "In fact, the instruction system is more related to the software ecosystem, such as X86 supporting the Windows ecosystem, and Arm supporting the Android ecosystem."

The perception that X86 CPUs have higher performance and Arm CPUs have more power advantages is mainly due to the different targets of the two before. X86 has used resources to improve performance, resulting in high chip performance and high power consumption, but Intel also has low-power chips like Atom; Arm's original goal was to make low-power processors, and now there are many high-performance Arm server CPUs, with higher performance and correspondingly increased power consumption.

That is to say, whether it is the Arm architecture or RISC-V designing products with better performance than high-end X86 CPUs, the instruction set is not a challenge, the core lies in the design target. If trade-offs are made within a certain boundary, including cache strategy, replacement algorithm, branch strategy, etc., CPU advantages can be optimized through fine-tuning.At present, the battle among X86, Arm, and RISC-V in the embedded, desktop, and high-performance CPU markets has already begun. It is impossible to compare who is better or worse because each processor architecture has its own strengths and weaknesses.

However, it is undeniable that X86 is no longer the only choice. With the efforts of major companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Alibaba's PingTouGe, Arm and RISC-V may become an indispensable presence in the PC chip field.